Germany

At the start of the tournament the Germans were the favourites to win the whole thing and they started of okay with a well drilled 2-0 win over Poland and to be honest they didn’t really have to try that hard in order to come away with the three points. Then or course came the result that shocked most people and that was the 2-0 defeat by Croatia and at this point, people started to question if the Germans had what it takes to make it through never mind win the tournament.

In the third and final game of the group stages they had to beat Austria and while they did 1-0 it was not the best of performances but the win saw them make it to the knockout stages where they would met the in form Portugal. Well I say in form, but they had lost their last group stage game v Switzerland but they had rested players so Portugal was still favourites for this game.

I also had Portugal to make it through and yet it was Germany who went 2-0 up in the first half and went on to win the game 3-2 and with a kind of performance which we are used to seeing from the Germans and maybe they have found some form as the tournament comes to its conclusion.

Turkey

Turkey have made the semi finals but not many people will no how as they have not really played what you could call great football but do have a never say die attitude which has served them well so far. It the opening game they lose easy enough to Portugal and to be honest for me the 2-0 score line should have been more. They then went on to beat the co-hosts Switzerland 2-1 with a last minute goal to set up a do or die game v the Czech Republic that looked lost when they went 2-0 down. However this do or die atatudie I was talking about served them well again and they scored three goals in the last fifteen minutes to not only win the game but make it through to the quarter finals.

So last night I managed to miss the entire first half and most of the second as I was at the cricket but did listen to the commentary on the way back and it did seem that Croatia were the better team and should have been wining the game, but it went to extra time and then with about 90 seconds left, Croatia scored and it looked like it was all over for the Turks, but a long punt up the field and then the goal went in and Turkey took the game to penalties.

Croatia decided that scoring pens or even hitting the target was not on the agenda and Turkey set up this game v Germany with a 3-1 win and once more the never say die attitude did well for them.

Verdict

Two main questions to be asked in this game and they are, will Turkey have enough to go through and keep lady luck shining down on them and is the price on Germany value for money.

Now Turkey have suspensions and injuries and for me are just not good enough to beat Germany who while still not really setting the tournament on fire will be too strong for the Turks.

So the price on a Germany win @ 1.44 seems fair enough and I just really cannot see past a German win here.

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Pick Germany to win @ 1.44

Croatia

Croatia were the surprise winners of Group B and must be confidant of reaching the Semi Finals of this tournament. I really thought the loss of Eduardo would affect this team, and in a way it has, and I once again state it is the reason why I dont think they will win this competition. England should still watch out when it comes to World Cup Qualifying though. Croatia won all 3 matches in the group stage and did it by only scoring 4 goals but only conceding 1 goal. A win over Germany shows they are capable of springing a surprise or 2.

Croatia did nothing to justify their ‘dark horses’ tag in their first game with Austria, struggling to a 0-1 win in a game that could have been drawn. They followed that up with a deserved success over Germany 2-1 before ending their group campaign with a 1-0 win over Poland even though they had made a number of changes to their first team.

Slaven Bilic is not a manager that deals with cliche or minces his words and has openly stated that he is confidant Croatia can beat Turkey because they are ‘better’. The initial goal was to reach the Quarter Finals, according to Bilic, but that is no longer enough and Croatia are sure they will not let a lead slip if they gain one over the Turks.

Ivan Rakitic is struggling with an injury but Darijo Srna has recovered from one and will start.

Turkey

With 15 minutes left in Geneva on Sunday night, it looked all over for the Turkish side as they trailed 0-2 to the Czech Republic in a must not lose match. However, everything turned sour for the Czechs and Turkey came away with a fabulous 3-2 victory, thanks largely to a bad bit of goalkeeping from the normally reliable Petr Cech. This game the Turks 2 wins, both from losing positions, in the group coupled with a defeat to Portugal to allow Turkey to progress to this game.

Turkey looked really average in their first game with Portugal, losing 2-0 but it could have been much much worse. They then were 1-0 to Switzerland before a very strong second half allowed them to win with the last kick of the game 1-2. Their final game with the Czechs was memorable but it has me wondering how much it has taken out of the players and the sending off of their keeper will hurt too.

Fatih Terim remains confident in his side to progress to perhaps a revenge mission over Portugal. They believe they can counter the physical Croatians and then rely on their own superior technique to get them through.

Volkan Demirel is suspended in goal and so the evergreen Rustu Recbar comes into the side and on his day is a very able replacement. Mehmet Aurelio is also suspended in his defensive midfield holding role and Emre Gungor, Servet Cetin and Gokhan Zan could all be missing through injury.

Head to Head

Croatia and Turkey have only ever met on 3 occasions, with the Croats winning 1 and 2 draws.

The 2 nations have only met 1 time in the last 8 years, back in 2004 in a friendly in Croatia. That match ended 2-2.

Prediction

Turkey are missing 2 influential players for their side in Demirel and Aurelio, while their defence is suffering from injuries. These factors could contribute in making this game a step too far for them.

Croatia have been more assured in their last 2 games after a nervy opening game with Austria and seem to have settled into the tournament. They are extremely confidant in their own abilities and are worthy favourites coming into the match.

I think this could be quite an exciting game, even though it doesnt have the star power of the other 3 quarter finals. Croatia must be backed to get through and seem to have the more reliable defence of the 2 sides. With Turkey also missing their goalkeeper and protecting midfielder, I would expect Croatia to come through fairly easily.

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Croatia WIN

HANDICAP BETTING :

Croatia - 0.75