Germany vs Spain
UEFA Euro 2008 - Final
Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna
Sunday 29th June 2008 - KO 19:45

---

After 30 games over 3 weeks, Euro 2008 reaches its climax on Sunday as Germany take on Spain in Vienna at 7:45pm.

Despite being labelled a ‘poor’ German team by many pundits, they have, as they did in 2002 and 2006, overcome these criticisms to show you can never write of the Germans.

As always Spain entered the competition with great expectations, but this time there was also a real belief amongst both the squad and the fans that this side had the resilience needed to win a major tournament.

GERMANY 4-0-1 10:6

Three times champions Germany look to continue their impressive form in this competition as they enter their sixth final, but their first in twelve years.

Although they started the tournament as favourites, due in part to the relative weakness of Group B, many people believed their workman like team would struggle against more skilled outfits once they reached the knockout stages.

Their first real challenge came against a fancied Portuguese team, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, who had been impressive in their first two group games.

However, early goals from Bastain Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose gave the Portuguese a shock they could not recover from, despite Nuno Gomes’ reply five minutes from half time. Germany were never truly stretched, and in the 62nd minute Ballack sealed it with a header from a Schweinsteiger free kick, despite Postiga’s consolation goal three minutes from time.

The semi final win over a depleted Turkey was not as comfortable, as first they had to come from behind, and then score in injury time to seal their place in Vienna.

Germany were big favourites to beat the injury ravaged Turks, but were outplayed in the first half, and were fortunate to be level at half time. Ugar Boral had given Turkey a deserved lead after they dominated the opening twenty minutes, but that lead lasted just five minutes as Schweinsteiger flicked in a cross from Podolski.

In a tight second half Klose looked to have won it for the Germans ten minutes from time as he capitalised on a mistake from Rustu to head Germany into the lead.

However the Turks have made scoring late goals their speciality in this tournament, and did it again for the fourth game in a row, thanks to Semih Sentruck, and everyone prepared for extra time.

Everyone except Phillip Lahm that is, as his surging run from full back caught the Turks napping, and he lashed home Hitzlspe rger‘s pass from six yards to seal Germany’s place in the final.

SPAIN 4-1-0 11:3

Spain have been the neutral’s choice due to their open and exciting approach, and are the tournament’s top scorers with 11 goals, one more than the Germans, while David Villa is the top scorer so far with four, three of which came in their opening game, where they swept aside the Russians 4-1.

Consecutive 2-1 wins in their final two group games against Sweden and Greece earned them top spot in Group D, and a quarter final clash with the Italians.

The two sides took very different approaches to the game, resulting in Spain dominating the 90 minutes as their attacking brand of football was restrained by the Italians typical defensive position.

Spain had the best chances in normal time, coming closest to scoring when Buffon spilled Marco Senna’a shot, only to see it hit the post and come back into his arms. The match inevitably went to penalties and looked set to favour the Italians, as it looked as though they had played for that outcome since the start.

History was also not on Spain’s side, as they had previously lost three quarter finals by penalty shot outs, all on the 22nd June. However, this time they held their nerve to win the shoot out 4-2, Casillas saving two kicks to give Fabregas the chance to shoot the Spanish into the semi-final.

Their semi final pitted them against their opponents from the first round, a Russian team this time with Andrei Arshavin. The opening half was tight, with both teams predictably cancelling each other out following their opening group game.

The second half saw the attacking Spain of the last three weeks emerge, with Fabregas, who had come on for an injured David Villa, and Xavi opening the scoring on 50 minutes. Guiza and Silva then put the game beyond the Russians with strikes in the 73rd and 82nd minute respectively, to seal Spain’s first tournament final place since the Euros of 1984.

HEAD TO HEAD

Germany and Spain have met each other 19 times, and Germany have won eight of these contests, while Spain proved the strongest on five occasions.

At the World Cup and European Championship, the two teams have played each other five times, with Germany winning three times and Spain having the upper hand only once.

The last time these two met was a friendly in February 2003, which Spain won 3-1.

TEAM NEWS

Germany coach Joachim Low must decide whether to recall Torsten Frings for Sunday’s Euro 2008 final against Spain.

The midfielder has declared himself fit after recovering from a broken rib and could replace Simon Rolfes (cut eye) in the only change to the side.

---

Spain striker David Villa will miss Sunday’s Euro 2008 final against Germany, the Spanish football federation have confirmed.

Villa, 26, injured a thigh muscle in Thursday’s semi-final win over Russia.

THE VERDICT

Looking at the tournament as a whole, Spain have produced the better record and against tougher teams - and with the semi-final in mind it’s easy to see why Spain are considered warm favourites.

Taking each round seperately, there would only be one occasion so far when I would give Germany the nod, and that would be in the Quarter-finals when I felt the 3-2 win over Portugal was a better performance than Spain’s 0-0 draw with Italy.

The absence of David Villa is a "headline" blow, but in truth Villa only scored in the group games, and if his absence means that Arsenal’s Cesc Fabregas starts then I would argue that it actually makes Spain stronger.

The only concern might be if Aragones takes a cautious approach and decides to revert to a 4-5-1 with Torres upfront as a lone striker - because that’s a plan that might result in a DRAW at 90 minutes.

Given my estimated percentages, I’m looking for prices of 3.30 on Germany or the Draw and a price of 2.50 on Spain - and the bookmakers are also pitching the game around that level.

 

The Pick :

Germany 0-1 Spain (maybe 1-1)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Germany 30% - Draw 30% - Spain 40%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I see this game as being much like the 2002 World Cup final - with a hardworking German team up against a more skillful opponent. It was close for a long time but eventually Brazil won 2-0.

So I’m going to oppose my percentages a bit and take SPAIN to win here - assuming that having Fabregas on from the start might actually raise that winning chance a bit and make the prices fair value.

Beware the German experience and craftiness though - you can never write them off - so a correct score saver of 1-1 DRAW might be worth a play.

(or else check out that "cash-back" page - to see which bookmakers are offering an angle to give you a bit of "insurance" if the bet goes wrong)

Good luck - and I hope the previews have been helpful for you this month!