2008-06-29 - Germany v Spain
June 28, 2008
UEFA Euro 2008 - Final
Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna
Sunday 29th June 2008 - KO 19:45
After 30 games over 3 weeks, Euro 2008 reaches its climax on Sunday as Germany take on Spain in Vienna at 7:45pm.
Despite being labelled a ‘poor’ German team by many pundits, they have, as they did in 2002 and 2006, overcome these criticisms to show you can never write of the Germans.
As always Spain entered the competition with great expectations, but this time there was also a real belief amongst both the squad and the fans that this side had the resilience needed to win a major tournament.
GERMANY 4-0-1 10:6
Three times champions Germany look to continue their impressive form in this competition as they enter their sixth final, but their first in twelve years.
Although they started the tournament as favourites, due in part to the relative weakness of Group B, many people believed their workman like team would struggle against more skilled outfits once they reached the knockout stages.
Their first real challenge came against a fancied Portuguese team, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, who had been impressive in their first two group games.
However, early goals from Bastain Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose gave the Portuguese a shock they could not recover from, despite Nuno Gomes’ reply five minutes from half time. Germany were never truly stretched, and in the 62nd minute Ballack sealed it with a header from a Schweinsteiger free kick, despite Postiga’s consolation goal three minutes from time.
The semi final win over a depleted Turkey was not as comfortable, as first they had to come from behind, and then score in injury time to seal their place in Vienna.
Germany were big favourites to beat the injury ravaged Turks, but were outplayed in the first half, and were fortunate to be level at half time. Ugar Boral had given Turkey a deserved lead after they dominated the opening twenty minutes, but that lead lasted just five minutes as Schweinsteiger flicked in a cross from Podolski.
In a tight second half Klose looked to have won it for the Germans ten minutes from time as he capitalised on a mistake from Rustu to head Germany into the lead.
However the Turks have made scoring late goals their speciality in this tournament, and did it again for the fourth game in a row, thanks to Semih Sentruck, and everyone prepared for extra time.
Everyone except Phillip Lahm that is, as his surging run from full back caught the Turks napping, and he lashed home Hitzlspe rger‘s pass from six yards to seal Germany’s place in the final.
SPAIN 4-1-0 11:3
Spain have been the neutral’s choice due to their open and exciting approach, and are the tournament’s top scorers with 11 goals, one more than the Germans, while David Villa is the top scorer so far with four, three of which came in their opening game, where they swept aside the Russians 4-1.
Consecutive 2-1 wins in their final two group games against Sweden and Greece earned them top spot in Group D, and a quarter final clash with the Italians.
The two sides took very different approaches to the game, resulting in Spain dominating the 90 minutes as their attacking brand of football was restrained by the Italians typical defensive position.
Spain had the best chances in normal time, coming closest to scoring when Buffon spilled Marco Senna’a shot, only to see it hit the post and come back into his arms. The match inevitably went to penalties and looked set to favour the Italians, as it looked as though they had played for that outcome since the start.
History was also not on Spain’s side, as they had previously lost three quarter finals by penalty shot outs, all on the 22nd June. However, this time they held their nerve to win the shoot out 4-2, Casillas saving two kicks to give Fabregas the chance to shoot the Spanish into the semi-final.
Their semi final pitted them against their opponents from the first round, a Russian team this time with Andrei Arshavin. The opening half was tight, with both teams predictably cancelling each other out following their opening group game.
The second half saw the attacking Spain of the last three weeks emerge, with Fabregas, who had come on for an injured David Villa, and Xavi opening the scoring on 50 minutes. Guiza and Silva then put the game beyond the Russians with strikes in the 73rd and 82nd minute respectively, to seal Spain’s first tournament final place since the Euros of 1984.
HEAD TO HEAD
Germany and Spain have met each other 19 times, and Germany have won eight of these contests, while Spain proved the strongest on five occasions.
At the World Cup and European Championship, the two teams have played each other five times, with Germany winning three times and Spain having the upper hand only once.
The last time these two met was a friendly in February 2003, which Spain won 3-1.
TEAM NEWS
Germany coach Joachim Low must decide whether to recall Torsten Frings for Sunday’s Euro 2008 final against Spain.
The midfielder has declared himself fit after recovering from a broken rib and could replace Simon Rolfes (cut eye) in the only change to the side.
Spain striker David Villa will miss Sunday’s Euro 2008 final against Germany, the Spanish football federation have confirmed.
Villa, 26, injured a thigh muscle in Thursday’s semi-final win over Russia.
THE VERDICT
Looking at the tournament as a whole, Spain have produced the better record and against tougher teams - and with the semi-final in mind it’s easy to see why Spain are considered warm favourites.
Taking each round seperately, there would only be one occasion so far when I would give Germany the nod, and that would be in the Quarter-finals when I felt the 3-2 win over Portugal was a better performance than Spain’s 0-0 draw with Italy.
The absence of David Villa is a "headline" blow, but in truth Villa only scored in the group games, and if his absence means that Arsenal’s Cesc Fabregas starts then I would argue that it actually makes Spain stronger.
The only concern might be if Aragones takes a cautious approach and decides to revert to a 4-5-1 with Torres upfront as a lone striker - because that’s a plan that might result in a DRAW at 90 minutes.
Given my estimated percentages, I’m looking for prices of 3.30 on Germany or the Draw and a price of 2.50 on Spain - and the bookmakers are also pitching the game around that level.
The Pick :
PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :
FIXED ODDS BETTING :
I see this game as being much like the 2002 World Cup final - with a hardworking German team up against a more skillful opponent. It was close for a long time but eventually Brazil won 2-0.
So I’m going to oppose my percentages a bit and take SPAIN to win here - assuming that having Fabregas on from the start might actually raise that winning chance a bit and make the prices fair value.
Beware the German experience and craftiness though - you can never write them off - so a correct score saver of 1-1 DRAW might be worth a play.
(or else check out that "cash-back" page - to see which bookmakers are offering an angle to give you a bit of "insurance" if the bet goes wrong)
Good luck - and I hope the previews have been helpful for you this month!
Popularity: 2% [?]
2008-06-26 - Russia v Spain
June 24, 2008
Euro 2008
2008-06-26 - Russia v Spain
Sports Betting Preview by Gooner
Russia vs Spain
UEFA Euro 2008 - Semi-Final
Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna
Thursday 26th June 2008 - KO 19:45
RUSSIA
Russia have come on in leaps and bounds during the course of this tournament as Guss Hiddinks young side have showed that they are learning their football lessons fast.
Russia have the youngest squad in Austria/Switzerland and Hiddink’s intensive fitness work in the build-up to tournaments is also paying dividends with his team noticeably fresher than their rivals in the last two games – perhaps helped by the fact the Russian season only starts in March.
Make no mistake - Russia deserved their victory over the Netherlands (who had themselves looked so good in previous matches) and a similar performance in the semi-final could be a winning one.
Russia are young, fresh, and have tremendous belief in their adopted coach, so I expect another attacking approach in Vienna.
SPAIN
Spain buried a jinx on Sunday night, after edging past Italy on penalties to remove an 88-year barrier that had been haunting them regularly.
But this was not a fluid performance from Spain, who seemed almost paralysed by their Azzurri opponents and the Spanish side will have to put on a much better show against Russia in order to make the final.
Spain may have finally defeated an old foe, but the Azzurri were tired old men, and now Spain have to refocus on an energetic Russian side and not expect things to be as easy as their 4-1 group win.
HEAD TO HEAD
Spain and Russia clashed in the opening game of Group D, and the Spanish attack had a field day scoring four times in a very comfortable 4-1 victory.
That was the biggest margin of victory and the highest scoring game in any of the nine clashes between the two nations.
Overall Spain hold a 5-3-1 record over Russia, with the only Russia victory a 2-1 success in Moscow way back in 1971.
TEAM NEWS
Russia will be without two players for the semi-final as defender Denis Kolodin and attacking midfielder Dmitri Torbinski were cautioned for a second time in Saturday’s 3-1 win over the Netherlands.
Spain had no players recieve another yellow card in the shoot-out win against Italy meaning coach Luis Aragonés will have a full complement of players to choose from.
THE VERDICT
This one is a very tricky game to call - and undoubtedly the stature and importance of the match will affect the way the game is played.
I previously recommended taking Russia on handicap against the Netherlands because we were getting such a great price, and because even though they were play an "in-form" opponent - if Russia attacked then they could cause problems.
It’s ALMOST exactly the same situation here, but the punters are a little wiser this time so the prices on the Russians are not quite so strong.
Also there is a question around whether Russian coach Guus Hiddink will continue to "throw caution to the winds" and play the attacking style - knowing that he is so close to the final?
For that matter, Spain might have beaten Italy, but they’re hardly over their tag as the "choakers" of European football. I was not impressed with Spain against Italy - but they should get more space in this match.
I’m going to rate this game much the same as the Russian quarter-final with Spain having a better group of individuals … but which team has the mental toughness to perform on this stage?
The Pick :
PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :
FIXED ODDS BETTING :
No bet on the 90 minute result. Unfortunately this time I agree with the bookmakers - and there is little value to be found.
I’ll take a look at the special bets in the next 12 hours - and see if I can find a play.
Popularity: 2% [?]
2008-06-22 - Spain v Italy
June 22, 2008
Euro 20082008-06-22 - Spain v ItalySports Betting Preview by Gooner |
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UEFA Euro 2008 - Quarter-Final Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna Sunday 22nd June 2008 - KO 19:45 The final quarter-final at UEFA EURO 2008 brings together two former winners in Spain and Italy, both of them bidding to add to their one and only success on the European stage. For Spain it is an opportunity to make the last four for the first time since 1984 while Italy are bidding for their second semi-final in three EURO tournaments. SPAINSpanish fans would have been disappointed to see the final results from Group C meant that they had to face the Italians, as for all the Spanish bravado and boasting about their team, the Azzurri are the one European side that Spain worry about at competitive games. (see h2h below). Spain are in good form, that is clear, as they are on a runk of nine straight international wins and seven competitive match wins. Victory will see them break their record for longest winning streak which stands at nine - and last time that streak was ended by .. Italy. WEIRD FACT : ITALYItaly have not been very impressive at all during group play, heavily beaten by the Dutch 0-3, and then only claiming a 1-1 draw with Romania thanks to a penalty save by Gigi Buffon which gave the Azzurri a lifeline. It was a better performance against France winning 2-0, albeit a very disappoint France, but once again Luca Toni looked less than lethal, and it was a pair of goals from a free-kick and the penalty spot that won the game. The loss of midfielders Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo will affect Italy’s shape here, although it must be said that neither player has been living up to his reputation so far. A GOOD OMEN? : After winning the World Cup in 1990 Germany finished runners-up in 1992 and 1998 World Cup Champions France also won Euro 2000. HEAD TO HEADSpain and Italy have played each other on 27 previous occasions. Spain have won eight, Italy nine and there have been 10 draws. In competitive matches, Spain have been less successful winning just one out of nine. Italy have won five times and there have been three draws. Spain though have not lost to Italy in their last four encounters since a 2-1 defeat in the 1994 World Cup quarter-finals, managing two wins and two draws in 4 friendly encounters. The most recent fixture came in Elche in March 2008, when Villa’s goal with 12 minutes remaining secured a 1-0 win for Spain. TEAM NEWSSpain coach Luis Aragones still says that he has not decided on his line-up yet but he is likely to stick to his first-choice side after having fielded his reserves in the 2-1 win over Greece. Aragones gave a strong indication to what his preferred starting line-up is when Spain trained on Friday - playing the XI in the first two games against the rest of the squad on Friday. Italy midfielders Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo are both suspended for this match after picking up two bookings. Alberto Aquilani and Massimo Ambrosini will probably come in while Daniele De Rossi and Simone Perrotta may also start. THE VERDICTThe form line suggest Spain should win this match, while history, omens and that wobbly Spanish record suggest that Italy could provide some sort of upset. Italy do have the belief about them to win this game, but considering what I’ve seen on the pitch so far, I feel that the 2.60 price on Spain to win is a price not to be turned down.
The Pick :
PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :
FIXED ODDS BETTING :I’ll go with SPAIN to finally get over their Italian hoodoo in competitive games. This is their best chance of doing it.
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Popularity: 1% [?]





